Water Umbra CielTier 2
at Outpost Ghent | Regional
decks
1
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.7%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1180
· median 1180
· range 1180–1180
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1164
Q3 1365
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.2 |
| Water Fractal | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
